What did the Australian Census Really Tell Us About Church Growth?
by Danny Bell
Since the release of the 2011 Australian Census Data there has been a flurry of speculation and hype. First there was the shock that more Australians are ticking the non-religious box than before, indicating an increase in those who don’t believe. There was the surprise that 64 percent of Australians still identify with Christianity in some form or another. Then there was the realisation that while this is a good thing, it did not translate into regular church attendance which was only at 9 percent. [1]
A small amount of seemingly good news was (apart from the Oriental Christian conglomerate), the Seventh-day Adventist Church had the next highest percentage of people identifying with it than all other denominations.[2] Church analysts and leaders have used this data, proudly trumpeting it far and wide as an indicator of success.
While the will is there to share this enthusiasm, as a statistician, I cannot. I see many problems with the way this data has been reported, giving a a generally false sense of security when it comes to our growth as a church in Australia. To those who don’t understand what constitutes real church growth, there can be a sense that we are doing okay, when in fact this is not correct. Knowing all the data, it would be irresponsible to say that we are growing well in the face of an opposite reality—a growth crisis.
What we need to understand with the Australian Census data is that it only records what denominational people identify with. It is not exclusively about church attendance but also includes people who have had past affiliation with the church. It does not accurately record growth in membership and so the need to view other data is crucial, as it tells a totally different story.
As the population increases, particularly within those states where migrant ratios are high, there will be an increase in those reporting affiliation with the church. Since the last Census, migration has increased substantially and many churches naturally show increases in preferred affiliation.
Despite this, however, the growth of the Seventh-day Adventist Church in Australia is not a happy picture. The best sources for looking at concise church growth are our own internal statistics in the General Conference Annual Statistical Report.[3] Here we can get precise data which is meticulously recorded every year by our pastors and leaders about what is happening in the areas of growth, employment, institutions and a host of other indicators. Knowing how to read the data is crucial to getting information on real growth, which involves calculations of losses, transfers, deaths and apostasies.
The latest information available on the GC Archives, Statistics and Research web site is for 2011, because 2012 data is still being compiled. One needs to appreciate the mammoth task involved, because it is dependent on first being reported; then it has to be documented, which can span into the following year.
For the Seventh-day Adventist Church in Australia the data show that the increase in membership through baptisms and professions of faith was 1,359 individuals for 2011. The combined losses of deaths, apostasies and those missing from church rolls (excluding transfers in and out, which are roughly evenly spread), was 887. If we subtract the losses from the gains we are left with a net figure of 472 membership increase in Australia for 2011.[4] This amounts to an average of about 1 person gained for each church group in Australia for the year 2011. Not a very good outcome.
Unfortunately I am not done yet. I wish the prognosis stopped here. If we really want to crunch the numbers on how we are actually doing in Australia, then we need to understand that church growth experts use a concept called Kingdom Growth. The idea of kingdom growth is when the church community increases when someone becomes a Christian, leaving a deficit in the non-Christian community from which they came. For the purposes of illustration, if we were dealing in real growth terms it would look like this on a scoreboard:
| Christian community +1 | Non-Christian community – 1 |
So the church’s gain is the non–Christian community’s loss. Unfortunately the 472 souls added to the church in Australia during 2011 were not all kingdom growth in the true sense of the word. A conservative estimate would be that around half who join the church annually through baptism are classified as Generic baptisms or biological growth.[5] Generic baptisms are when we baptise our own, those who have been brought up in the church such as our children. While it is a time for rejoicing when our youth commit to Christ, it’s not true kingdom growth. The non-Christian community surrounding the church experiences no loss when we baptise one of our own.
It can be explained this way. A church has 100 people attending regularly, 90 of whom are baptized and 10 are youth who have not been baptized. If those 10 youth are then baptised into Christ, how has the church affected the surrounding non-Christian community? The church still comprises 100 people and the community has not been impacted by the Gospel at all. Nothing has changed except inside the Christian community.
The Church’s net growth figure of 472 souls for 2011 therefore can’t be all classified as true kingdom growth. Take away the generic baptisms and we have a bleaker picture than before. If we concede 50 percent as being generic (and this is being very generous), that gives us a final growth figure of 236 for all of Australia during 2011. Divide that among our 519 churches and we are left with a mean average of less than half a person for each church community. Sound cold and calculating? That’s reality, unfortunately.
You could even argue that the 211 people that came in on profession of faith during 2011 were not kingdom growth either, as these entrants are deemed to have had a meaningful experience with Christ before joining our Church. I have not included profession of faith gains as losses, however, because they are still growth for our particular message; but they are definitely not kingdom growth. And in all honesty, we don’t need more bad news just now.
It is not my intention to discourage us or our efforts in soul winning. It is my intention however to dispel the hype that we need to be happy about our growth as Adventists in Australia. We are, in fact, in a growth crisis. Half a soul plucked from the Australian community for every church in 2011 is not exactly Pentecost. Wishing that things could be better and relying on the Census to calm our fears is no substitute for understanding where we really are in terms of growth.
A sobering thought may be that we have been unaware of our situation and that it sounds remarkably similar to what my favourite little old lady had to say many years ago: "I am filled with sadness when I think of our condition as a people…Grievous and presumptuous sins have dwelt among us. And yet the general opinion is that the church is flourishing, and that peace and spiritual prosperity are in all her borders." Ellen G. White, Testimonies for the Church, Vol. 5, page 217)
The solution? I think we need to re-look at our methods of witnessing and evangelism to a sceptical Australian public. The Census shows that Australians mostly identify with Christianity but not church environments. They like the product but not the retail outlet. Maybe it’s time for changes to be made in our approach to the public? Maybe we need to focus more on our own communities instead of going overseas where reward and success are guaranteed? Maybe we need to rethink throwing large sums of money at reaping campaigns when they don’t reap as effectively as they used to? The answers are there if we desire them but we need to be quick about it as many are going to Christless graves and the scoreboards are stacking up against us.
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1. ABS, NCLS, McCrindle Research 2012
2. Source: ABS 2011 Census of Population & Housing (Time Series Profile – Cat. 2003.0)
3. 2013 Annual Statistical Report 149th Report of the General Conference of Seventh-day Adventists for Year Ending December 31, 2011
4. Ibid.
5. There is no real way of measuring this except by anecdotal evidence. I understand that many may query this but if we look through our publications and baptisms we attend we can safely say that 50% is a conservative estimate. In reality it is much higher for many churches. It would be interesting if there was some data on this but I have yet to find any.
Danny Bell lives in Western Australia. He has been a pastor, chaplain, family court mediator, counsellor and editor of Trench Mail, a men’s ministry publication. He is currently leading a church plant called Lion Hearts which focuses on attracting men. His passion lies in making the Church relevant to the Church’s largest unreached people group—men.
This article is interesting. It uses the term “apostasies” which we can infer is a reference to individuals leaving the SDA denomination. But apostasy in the true sense is one leaving the Christian faith, denying Christ and His atonement. Moving to another denomination is not an indicator of one losing faith in Christ. But a category that this article mentions, which is quite puzzling, is this category that they refer to as “those missing from the church rolls.” This may be benign or it could be an indicator of a state which is more indicative of the term “apostasy.” I know of a huge chunk professing Adventists who actually never attend church anymore and who are, for all intent and purposes, secularists or agnostics (perhaps even complete atheists). But for whatever reason, they still identify themselves as Seventh Day Adventists, although they may embrace things like the new age, spiritualism, or universalism. Most of these non-practicing Adventists profess to be baptized. It is curious that the article addresses “Generic Baptisms.” I imagine that even here we might have to wonder if children and young people are simply getting baptized out of ritual rather than a true commitment to Christ. If this is the case, then the church is in an even worse condition than this article suggests because membership numbers might be based upon a number of false conversions.
Has a similar study been perfomed on the NAD? It would be most interesting to compare the NAD with this study. Does anyone believe it would be so much better?
If the tithe can easily be computed; and the memberships, it will reveal how much is being spent on maintaining present membership and the cost per member added. It could be quite a revelation.
Wayne; apostacies has been used for many decades in the church statistical reports to describe those leaving the faith of the SDA church. It has recently changed that wording to "dropped from the roll". I used "apostacies" as it is a word most are familiar with whereas "dropped" has no conotations as to why. The dictionary defines apostacy as "The abandonment or renunciation of a religious or political belief". I am not sure your definition is correct.
This is different to those of course who went "missing" because they actually did just go "missing". That is, nobody knows where they went or are now (169 for Australian SDA's for 2011 – how does this happen?)
Elaine, I happen to believe that the same would apply to the US. I did read recently that you had some sort of Census similar to ours? I saw there the hype about how well you were going on top of the charts in terms of those that identify with the church. It would be intertesting to apply the same set of parameters that I have to the official church statistics for the US – I am not sure you would come out smelling of roses as many are led to believe. It wouldnt take much to have a quick look.
I think the UK is worse as well because of some of the data I am seeing coming from there too.
Our people need to be told this information and the truth about our dire situation shared with all adventists. Keeping this information from them only serves to give the impression that all is well and there is nothing to be concerned about.
Our church is very afraid of any negative publicity it may get and so it moves politically at times to shut down voices that bear bad tidings. I think we need to hear the bad as well as the good – we have nothing to fear from examination but to hide or smother this information will only serve to deepen what is already a huge gulf between reality and our perceived wellness as a church in the west.
With total growth numbers so small, why is anyone even talking about apostasies? They are a symptom of a simple fact: the church has become separated from the power of God and as a result utterly impotent as a component of society. We should not be merely concerned about this, we should be totally alarmed.
A glance at the latest population growth numbers published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that in the same period when the church grew by only 472, the nation grew by more than 380,000. That means the general population grew by more than 800 people for each ONE PERSON who joined the church. This should be a fire alarm awakening everyone from their illusions about the church. Since this is the result of the church being separated from the empowerment promised by God, the cure is simply to reconnect with that empowerment in the Holy Spirit. Doing that requires that we sacrifice our traditions and whatever else disconnects us from society so we can regain relevance as people who actually minister God's love to a dying world.
Simplistic answers do nothing to face the problem with actual plans, and presently, everything is just as usual. If the NAD were to do such a study with the same parameters as in Australia, it would truly be an eye-opener but how could the church then continue to call for more money to "spread the Gospel" when the present and past activities would be shown as so pathetic? Pouring money into a most ineffective organization would no longer be transparent and reveal that most of the tithe has been spent on merely maintaining a huge and bungling administration that is largely being funded to continue "as is." As long as this Potemkin village is portrayed, nothing will change.
Danny disects the recent 'good news' from growth figures in Australia, demonstrating the news is perhaps not as good as first appears. But isn't it even worse? Has AToday previously reported that much of this growth is also from immigration? Doesn't that illustrate that if the Church grows by 2 people emigrating to Australia, but loses 1 person out the door, the situation is even more dire, because the loss is not obvious.
That's an excellent point and much the same as what is happening in North America where the great majority of our growth is immigrant groups– whose children may be raised in the church but likely will be just as likely to leave as native youth.
So, how's all the preaching doing at growing the church? Obviously, not very well.
I think what is more of a concern is that this information is being kept from the general population of church folk. This article was first offered to a premier sda publication in Australia but was not even acknowleged. There is a culture that we musnt talk about bad things – especially in areas where there has been heavy tithe dollar investment.
The church I am afraid is hanging on to outdated forms of evangelism which cost us millions of dollars each year to run. The conclusions are, as Elaine has rightly pointed out above, that we are channeling huge money into a system to just tread water. In my business, if something is not getting returns, then it gets canned. Effort or money put in needs checks and balances not nostalgic sayings like, "you cant place a value on a soul". Of course you cant but God requires we use his money wisely.
Treading water? No, we're sinking. That happens when you've been treading water long enough to become exhausted. However, I praise God that there is a quiet revolution taking place in the church. Where in many places the church is dying, in other places it is reviving as people discover the blessings of fellowship outside of weekly services and service under the guidance and empowerment of the Holy Spirit.
I've said it before and I'm saying it again: my church has never grown faster than since we quit holding evangelistic crusades.
When there is no cost-benefit analyses there cannot be an estimate of the money expended for each new convert. As Dingdong writes, no organization can continue to operate with such high expenditures and less results. Assuming the mission of the church is to make converts, it is consistently failing that goal using the same old methods.
The church – local up to GC – always does a cost-benefit analysis, even if it is not aware it is doing so. When a church decides not to defend/support one group because it may upset another, it has made a statement on the relative value of each group to the church. Every decision tells others what/who we value most. We may not see it, but others usually do. When the church decides to ignore a problem rather than deal with it, it makes a statement on how it doesn't value those involved on either/any side. Being unintential abouth such decisions does not remove the consequences, nor the responsibility for those consequences.
Elaine,
Cost benefit analysis works only where you are comparing two or more alternative approaches. Since the church has no alternate(s) to public evangelism such analysis would be useless. This leaves us with the question of if church leaders will recognize the failure and adopt different courses of action.
The church has, and has had for a long time, alternatives. But evangelistic methods, like almost everything else in the church, are viewed as revealing a person's political/theological position. Most church leaders are already close to being overwhelmed by the issues the church faces, and adding opposition from some powerful elements over new forms of evangelism does not appeal to them. To continue as we are is almost always the 'safest' option – something that appeals to a church that is overwhelmingly risk averse.
They could only calculate the cost of converting one member, which shouldn't be too difficult: each church, or each local conference knows the number of new converts each year, and any extra spent on evangelizing, above and beyond normal congregational expenses, could be determined, couldn't it?
Some churches gain new converts without any extra expenses, while some promote an evangelistic series with the costs paid for by the local churches in the area (at least it used to be that way): each church was charge a percentage of the overall cost based in membership. The church I used to attend, never sponsored an evangelist "crusade" but gained membership over the years simply by members inviting friends, or walk-in's liked it so well they transferred or joined initially.
Someone with more recent knowledge can furnish better and more recent info.
That number is easy to calculate. Though I can't say I've heard any such numbers for at least 15 or 20 years. My reaction back then was shock and disbelief at how much it had risen.
The evangelism model we have in the ministry of Jesus is that He ministered to the physical needs of the people first. He fed the hungry. He healed the sick. He comforted the sorrowing. By doing this he demonstrated the love and power of God and won their confidence. Only then was He able to call them to follow Him. But we ignore the first steps, jump to the last and then wonder why we aren't seeing results. Duh!
The church's goal is to gain converts. There is no "head count" when people are only fed or clothed.
Jesus' mission was not to make converts as he only ministered among Jews who already had the Law which was all they needed.
Today, the SDA church reverses that method: preach the Law first; get them to accept the Sabbath (most are not currently killing or stealing, so Sabbath is essentially "The Law" as viewed by Adventists; and then preach the prophetic predictions of the second coming and to beware of the Mark of the Beast and voila! A new convert has been made. But, has the church not done what Christ accused the Jews of doing:
"You who shut up the kingdom of heaven in men's faces, neither going in yourselves nor allowing others to go in who want to….You who travel over sea and land to make a single proselyte, and when you have him you make him twice as fit for hell as you are."
How is a man's life improved by observing the Sabbath, by believing the D&R prophecies, by believing that EGW is the Spirit of Prophecy and an authoritative voice of truth?
My point, exactly. None of those other things is bad or wrong at the proper time. We need to be starting with what improves a person's life where they are today and letting the other things follow in their time.
Hi Elaine, It's unfortunate that your perspective of SDAism is skewed to a law focus. I suggest you act to reverse this emphasis in your local congregation or move. What you are refering to is not the emphasis that I experience.
On another small point . . . I certainly hopw that no Adventist Christian believes that Ellen White is the Spirit of Prophecy!!!!!! What version of Adventist are you being exposed to? When I was a brand new Adventist Christian I thought the Spirit of Prophecy resided on a book shelf!
Moose,
You confuse what you know about Adventists that it is all there is to know about them. How long have you been and Adventist? Where do you live? All these are important because you are demonstrating that all Adventists have not been taught similarly.
I will let others reply to your statement that "no Adventist Christian believes that Ellen White is the Spirit of Prophecy." I have been in Adventism for more than 80 years and I, and all my contemporaries in many churches where I have held membership were taught that the Spirit of Prophecy was another name for EGW, or that the "Spirit of Prophecy" meant EGW.
Hi Elaine
Yep, I do believe that there is a huge diversity in the Adventist community. I also think that this is a good thing. It is certainly true that not all Advnetists have been taught the same.
Now why would that be?
It is because we all view reality through the lens of our own experience.
Perish the thought hat we all see things from the same persepctive.
How boring would that be?
We would all sit around nodding in agreement . . . . yawn.
After all it's not what we know it's who we know that saves us!
I live in Australia . . . the land of heretics! I've been A Christian since 1975 and an Adventist since 1977.
I wrote, "I HOPE no Adventist Christian believes that Ellen White is the Spirit of Prophecy". Like, she was a lady! If all your contemporaries in the many churches where you have held membership were taught that the Spirit of Prophecy was some other name for Ellen White, then, in my highly exalted humble opinion, they and you have been taught a lie. The Spirit of Prophecy is neither a human being or a set of books on a book shelf. I'll leave you to have a think about who the Spirit of Propphecy really is.
We are blessed
Moose,
Since you live in Australia, what are you doing to help the church grow? Are your efforts being effective and delivering results?
Thanks Noel for that challenge.
What can I say . . . I try to practice the Biblical growth model of – Prepare the soil, Sow the gospel seed, Cultivate the crop, Harvest and then Multiply. I do not do well. My results are very limited. I thank God that Jesus accepts me despite my short comings. I certainly regard myself as the least of Apostles ; ie. those sent (Jesus said to the disciples "Go").
Do you have any suggestions for me to improve please?
We are blessed
Lacking more details I'm not sure I can make any specific suggestions other than to make yourself available to God to do whatever He wants you to do and seeking the guidance and empowerment He offers each of us. Don't look for the answer in the church. Instead, seek it directly from God. Look for what God wants you to be doing. Effective ministries are typically personal and most often doing things other than preaching, teaching or giving Bible studies. Keep in mind that the first result of every miracle Jesus performed was an improvement in the recipient's life. Seek to improve lives and God's love will use those actions in surprising and profound ways.
Let me tell you how I got started. My ministry focuses on improving lives by improving how people live. We do home-related projects, whatever repairs a person requires along with helping in whatever other opportunities God offers. It started small. I was seeking God's guidance to know what ministry He wanted me to do and was reading about the encounter Moses had with God at the burning bush. I felt like God was asking me the same question: What is in your hand? It took me a couple weeks to answer. I'd grown-up learning carpentry and other construction skills from my father and grandfather. But my tool box was rather meager and filled with the cheapest tools my meager budget could buy. So I told God that I liked doing that sort of work and if He could do something with my tool box, it was His. As clearly as if it had been spoke, God's answer was "I can bless that." A week later at church a single mother who had just a temporary job without benefits shared that a few nights before they'd had a small fire in her ten year-old daughter's bedroom when a candle had lit some papers on the desk. There was no serious fire damage but the smoke damage meant the bedding, curtains and carpet would have to be replaced and the room repainted. They also discovered that the smoke alarms had not worked. Hearing that story I felt like God was telling me that He was showing me the first place for us to begin working. I called her to say that I felt the church should be helping her and got details. She was moved to tears by the inquiry. I sent an e-mail to the church telling everyone what had happened, our start time on Sunday morning, a list of the tasks to be done and directions. We had more volunteers than work to be done. We cleared the bedroom and repainted it. We even installed a new electric circuit and smoke alarms. The blessings were many. The mother and daughter were deeply appreciative and became dedicated members of the church. Each person who helped was blessed and when God revealed need situations in the future, many of those same volunteers responded again.
I cannot over-emphasize your need to seek guidance directly from God. You may ask others in the church to join you in praying for that guidance from God, but people in church leadership positions who have any experience with Holy Spirit-empowered ministries are so rare that it is generally best to not ask them for counsel. When God shows you a need, get moving and watch how He provides and guides along the way. You're starting an adventure with God. Don't delay it by seeking permission from the church board or the pastor. When God says to move, get moving.
I would love to hear how God answers your prayers and what ministry He leads you into.
Thanks Danny for that revealing article. I suspected something like that was happening for a while. Thanks William Noel for sharing your approach, I like it. Hopefully I can do something like that.
I believe we need to tell people that the Father loves them, if necessary, using words.
SigiK,
My one regret about this form is the inability to get feedback outside of a particular discussion string. It would be a great blessing to me to hear how God has been guiding you and to share as we learn to minister His love in the particular ways He intends for each of us. If you wish, the moderator has my permission to give you my personal e-mail address so we can grow together in empowered ministry.
RE: "Don't look for the answer in the church. Instead, seek it directly from God. Look for what God wants you to be doing. Effective ministries are typically personal and most often doing things other than preaching, teaching or giving Bible studies." [Mr William Noel]
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I have nothing personal against Mr Noel's 'anti-establishment' approach to Christian ministry and commend him for his zeal and innovative ways he goes about his work. To me, however, this approach seems rather haphazard for an organised church ministry, especially since it goes against Matt 28:19, Mark 16:15 and John 5:39, which denote explicit instructions by Jesus Himself for us to preach, teach and give bible studies. This of course stands out among the other goodwill ministry programs which complement the gospel ministry rather than being non-effective as some would like us to think. Those concerned primarily with just a social gospel will ultimately work against themselves and the church thereby defeating the very reason for their personal ministry effort – to win souls for Christ and advance the cause of His Church which is – the ‘body of Christ.’ Most Adventist churches I know, albeit even the lukewarm ones, have a personal ministries department which encourages individuals to do personal evangelism. The difference? There’s no anti-establishment chorus within the organised church for good reason: They serve the same Master.
If you needed someone to teach your children to read and write, would you hire someone who was illiterate? So, how can my telling someone to follow the example of Jesus and receive guidance and empowerment directly from God be "haphazard" when I tell them to not seek that guidance from people who have no knowledge of ministry under the guidance and empowerment of the Holy Spirit?
Jesus ministered a social gospel before He taught. The first things He did was heal the sick, comfort the sorrowing, cast out demons and raise the dead. By doing this he demonstrated the love and power of God. It was after being touched by that power that the people came to hear his teaching. What does the church teach us to do? Preach when we have given them no reason to want to hear our message. If we ministered the love of God in the power of the Holy Spirit first we would have no need for preachers, just people who have experience with God to answer their questions about the source of the power that has touched them.
Well said William.