Adventist World Statistics Evaluated by a Retired Missiologist
by Monte Sahlin
At the recent annual meeting of the General Conference executive committee G. T. Ng, executive secretary of the Adventist world church, told church leaders that the Seventh-day Adventist Church is approaching 18 million members. The report was published by the Adventist Review. I will quote a few lines from the extensive report and the make some observations about each quote.
We … “enjoy dramatic growth in Southern Asia, Latin America and Southern Africa, which has pushed worldwide membership to nearly 18 million … with the Adventist population booming in much of the southern hemisphere.”
In our global statistics and the spread of Adventism we have to take into consideration the immense areas where the main religion is Islam, Hinduism or Buddhism as well as countries where communism is unchallenged. About two billion people live in these places and are, for religious or political reasons, outside the reach of any Christian missions. The 18 million Adventist are largely located in other nations in Africa, Asia and South America.
Urban areas are the main focus of Adventist world evangelism these days. For our purposes an urban area is a city with at least 50,000 people. With this definition, more than half of the world’s populations live in urban areas. It has been estimated that in urban areas there are 555 individuals for each Adventist. For comparison purposes, these figures can serve as indicators of the Adventist presence on the globe: The 18 million Adventists in a world with about 7 billion people makes a benchmark of one Adventist for 396 individuals. In the Christian world with 2.3 billion Christians, belonging to 44,000 denominations, the statistics result in the indicator of one Adventist for 128 Christians. In the USA and Canada with a combined population of 346,670,000 and 1,135,000 Adventists there is one Adventist for 306 individuals.
“Some 6.6 million members live in Africa, 5.8 million are in Latin America, and 3.4 million are in Asia. …The report heavily emphasized statistics based on trends that emerged several years ago: Nations in the northern hemisphere are experiencing slow growth.”
These statistics reveal that in Africa with 950 million people and 6.6 million Adventist, there is one Adventist for each 144 individuals. In Latin America with 598 million inhabitants and 5.8 million Adventists it is one to 103. With the present distribution of membership and areas of the most rapid church growth some may claim that the Adventist faith is becoming a religion for the developing world with its strength moving from northern to southern continents. The GC report could suggest that this is the case.
The concepts in Revelation (1:12; 2:5), where the lamp stand is interpreted as representing Christendom, could serve as a fitting model. Christianity began in Palestine 2000 years ago. Then it moved north of the Mediterranean. With the Reformation, Northern Europe became the most important Christian continent. Then North America came on the world scene. However, it seems for the present that South America is taking over as the center of initiatives and missionary energy. It is predicted that in 50 years Africa will be the strongest Christian continent. And figures suggest that Asia may emerge as a future Continent with an impressive Christian population.
The Advent movement as revealed by the 2013 GC reports has to a great extent confirmed and followed a similar pattern. Of the 13 world divisions five are not able to report significant progress, while the five divisions where things are happing have the word Southern in their names. Of the 18 million members today, only 2 million reside in northern divisions. It is a decided change from 1900 when North America, Europe and Australia were the sole places where Adventist could be found.
“The 15 fastest declining unions are in the Euro-Asia, Trans-European and Inter-European divisions – not surprising given the population loss in the Eastern European nations, setback by a major economic crisis and high unemployment in and around the former Soviet Union.”
Secularism is no doubt the main reason for the decreasing memberships in Western Europe. The losses could in some places, as time passes, become be a question of survival. The growth experiences of churches in many Eastern European countries after the decline of communism in 1989, have to some extend been exhausted. At the same time the rather relaxed European Union immigration laws have made it possible for Eastern European immigrants to seek employment and move westward. One result is that Eastern European Adventists, together with sisters and brothers from Africa, Asia and South America, have made it possible for union conferences in Great Britain, France, Germany, Spain and Portugal to keep their statistics in a stable state and even report limited growth. Romania with 24 million people and 67,000 Adventists has the European record with one Adventist to 358 individuals. It is also through migration responsible for the growth in Spain.
On the other hand Adventist churches in Scandinavia were not to the same degree a goal for Adventist immigrants and have lost out in the area of transfer growth. For instance consider the unfortunate developments in Denmark. In 1973 Denmark had a population of 5 million with 4,000 Adventists. In 2013 with a population of 5.5 million the membership has fallen to 2,500 or a 38 per cent loss. Add to this the fact that about half of the church members in Denmark are past 60 years of age. Today Denmark with a population of 5.5 million and 2,500 Adventist reports 2,200 persons for each Adventist. The state of affairs, in some of the other Scandinavian countries are perhaps a little more positive, but the general trend in all European Adventist churches is somewhat similar to the facts about Denmark.
“On the other end of the growth spectrum was the South Pacific Division, which reported a membership decline of about 5 percent. Division President Barry Oliver said the loss was expected because a comprehensive audit removed many members from church records. 'The growth rate suffered simply because we caught up on all the statistics to make them more accurate.'”
A few years ago while conducting in-service education on church growth for a group of experienced ministers, the students asked me each time I was dealing with statistics on Adventist memberships, whether my numbers were names on the list or active members. The report from the South Pacific Division and the words from the president, Pastor Barry D. Oliver, must have been a thought-provoking and perhaps not by all a welcome testimony. How do we count? How do we use numbers? How many of the 18 million are really Adventists in lifestyle and confessions?
At a meeting of church administrators where these issues were on the agenda, it was, in good humor, suggested by an executive that if you desire to have a long life, just move to a certain named field. "They have not reported any deaths over the last six years." Some years ago in my early missionary experience my pastors told me, a young and new president, that quite a few names on their membership lists could not be found. Some members were know to them to have passed away years ago, but were still counted.
In a conversation with my union president, I suggested that my field conduct a thorough audit of all church lists and get them up to date. It might result in a 20 percent decrease in membership statistics. The wise leader told me that this would be ideal and he would not stop me from doing it, however, it would possibly also mean that the appropriations from higher church units would be cut by 20 percent. For financial reasons we tried to be practical, and only dropped the names of the unknown and dead church members in step with new baptisms.
“While North America is considered slow growing, it still provides the single-largest amount of tithe, at $933 million. The next-closest tithe-producing division is South America, with more than $500 million.”
Another interesting fact about faithfulness is in tithing. The report has it that last year $933,000,000 was paid in tithe by 1,135,000 North American church members. The average per capita income in the USA and Canada is estimated to be $45,000. Ideally the tithe would on average be $4,500 per year from each member. However, the report states that the average per capita tithe was only $822. Even taking into consideration that a number of church members are seniors, students, unemployed and so on, the figure is fairly low.
When we as a global Christian denomination publish encouraging reports on progress in various areas, would it be proper to also make room for the negative effect passive members have on the statistics? Perhaps it could be suggested that the example of the comprehensive audit undertaken by the South Pacific Division administration should be a model for the world church. This would no doubt result in a somewhat smaller global membership. However, a more honest report would have a positive influence on plans for evangelism, pastoral care, distributions of funds, approaches to administrations, the role of institutions and the deployment of missionaries.
Reporting based on actual facts should also report the increased numbers of “cultural Adventists” and members who have lost interest. By "cultural Adventists," I mean those secular or nonreligious individuals who still identify with Adventist culture due to family background, personal experience, or the social environment in which they grew up.
Numbers and statistics are important for the church. But in dealing with numbers, especially in evangelism, we must have in mind that big numbers are not necessarily a sign of special blessings. We must be aware of that in missiology circles, the term ‘number game,’ is used when a church’s progress and blessings are reported but the problems are not. Statistical progress should never be a goal in itself or used as a sign of special blessings.
There is nothing wrong in counting. Statistics are needed for good administration. However, the counting should also include the spiritual side of a Christian movement, the relationship of members to Christ and the church, as it is manifested in, among other things, church attendance and financial support of the cause. Reports on numbers should never be used as proof of special blessings of the Holy Spirit. They can be an indication of good evangelists and well planned approaches. However, in all cases humility should be shown.
Thanks for the analysis and reminding us that there is more behind the numbers than just numbers.
Borge I attended church in Oslo, Norway last month and was pleased to see the young and ethnic Norwegian members leading out, although since it was Oslo there were plenty of every kindred tribe and nation, including some from Zambia where I lived for 9 years who were studying or working in Norway also participating in this multiethnic Bethel church.
A deeper analysis of the growth and stagnation of Adventism in various nations would be of interest. I suspect that the liberal criticism that "Adventism only appeals to the ignorant and uneducated" could be fairly well undermined by careful analysis.
Adventism offers a great deal to the intelligent and the fairly well educated but impoverished masses striving for a better life in difficult circumstances. It frees from the denomination of the ancestors and their spirits. It promotes health of body. It values and fosters education. It uplifts women (not too far mind you, but in every African country I have lived in it is uplifting and positive. Christ always uplifts women, even when the message is delivered first my males not eager to lift too far!) It protects and educates children. Nelson Mandella's children went to SDA church schools in South Africa because they remained free of government aid and control, SDA schools were free to educate, not to hold down the blacks as the government tried.
Adventists build schools and hospitals.
In many a small town and many a little village, the happiest and cleanest, and most progressive thing in those towns is an Adventist church on Sabbath morning, with an enthusiastic young person teaching a Sabbath School lesson.
When Adventism agains offers an open and free place to free people from the bleakness of atheism, and the ignorance of blind literalism, with a real understanding of the Bible as a record of men and women dealing with God in their times, not a restriction or fence restricting us from dealing with God in our times, our churches could also begin to shine again as brightly and happily as African and South American churches do. We have so much to offer, but it is not a papal encyclical from "headquarters" demanding that creation has to be "6 literal 24 hour days, a few thousand years ago". (As if we had the authority to tell God how he must have created!) Adventism thrives by offering something better to a society. It will die by offering something less to our American/European cultures.
"We have so much to offer, but it is not a papal encyclical from "headquarters" demanding that creation has to be "6 literal 24 hour days, a few thousand years ago". (As if we had the authority to tell God how he must have created!) " By ceding that authority to Evolutionists is just an imposition of a different faith tradition in the guise of scientific englightment. We should be glad that Adventists are not so quick to jump on the Evolution bandwagon!
Who is ceding authority to Evolutionists? They are not forcing anyone to accept their explanations, but the same cannot be said of the church. No one has authority unless you cede it to them.
"Who is ceding authority to Evolutionists?" Oh my, what a statement!
"No one has authority unless you cede it to them." Now that's true!
Thank you Borge Schantz – an excellent analysis as I have come to expect from you.
Jack has made many of my comments but there is one more facet to under-reporting of membership losses that nobody wishes to discuss openly. It also gives a local church or conference or union more clout in the number of constituency delegates. This "advantage" of over-representation tends to decrease as one moves up through the hierarchy of constituencies, as the number of delegates at higher levels is more heavily weighted by bureaucratic infrastructure rather than by number of members.
I have known of individual churches and local conferences that avoided pruning their membership rolls for this reason. Not to mention that in some parts of the world experiencing rapid growth if your own numbers look worse than those around you, then as a pastor or conference officer you are limiting your own potential for advancement.
On the other hand consider the ancestral strongholds of the SDA faith in North America, Australia and Northern Europe. If we were to down-size our infrastructure to reflect the membership implosion by combining local conferences, unions and even divisions, then the historical power elites would experience even more erosion of their clout at GC sessions for example. I do not know as much about Australia but there is a fair case that in both North America and Europe we have too many Union Conferences and arguably in Europe too many Divisions.
Institutional consolidation is a painful process. I was one of the laymen in the front row when the Northern and Central Unions in North America merged, and also some of the local conferences within that area. As Borge has pointed-out this is not so much driven by "backsliding" as by demographic shifts. The declining number of agricultural jobs has wreaked havoc on the small towns of Middle America, and on their churches. I know of conferences that every year baptize as many or more people as transfer out due to economic opportunity. They have to aggressively proselytize just to keep their heads above water and they know it. (My own immediate family is an example of this phenomenon – born and raised in the Midwest but now in Oregon. I was abe to stave-off the inevitable by consulting for Silicon Valley companies while raising our children in the Midwest. When they headed to college we conceded and moved west to the Silicon Forest.)
The same is happening for a variety of reasons in parts of Europe as Borge has explained. It is only a matter of time before the overhead of legacy insititutional structures becomes unsustainable. I have worshipped in various countries in Eastern Europe and have made fast friends with SDA families there due to their warm-hearted hospitality. I can only imagine their pain, having diligently nurtured their churches and their own families while weathering the storm of Cummunism, only to see the best and brightest of their young move West in search of better opportunites. (One of my daughters-in-law issues from the SDA diaspora from Eastern Europe, and my wife from the Anabaptist diaspora from Eastern Europe over a century ago.)
This is not of merely hypothetical interest to readers of the Atoday web site. Many brickbats are being hurled at SDA leadership from all sides, regarding women's ordination and now the election of a woman conference president. One must understand that both at the global level and at the local level the leaders must represent the constituencies that voted them into office, whose delegates must represent those who appointed them. That is why in SoCal more than 70% will vote for a woman conference president while at the global level an equally large majority will vote against ordaining women.
Then there is the matter of Mainland China which has more ordained women pastors and leaders than all of the rest of the SDA church combined. Since they have little conventional institutional infrastructure, they have only token representation at the GC level. Supposing they were able to actually choose a representative delegation in a manner similar to other parts of the SDA world? Would the GC officers threaten not to recognize their woman leaders or seat them on its own Executive Committee? They are fortunate that they can look the other way because in China the church does not operate according to our voted working policies and manuals. This gives both sides plausible deniability. Were the church in China suddenly able to operate according to GC policies and manuals the leadership would be decimated again (like 60 years ago) by the resulting upheaval. The GC must resolve this dilemma regarding gender roles in leadership if China is ever to come into "full fellowship" organizationally. I am not predicting whether this will ever happen. However I doubt that God in His own way has healed the deadly wound inflicted upon the church in China by Communism, only for it to incur a self-inflicted deadly wound.
Regardless of Ted Wilson's personal views he now has an enormous demographic challenge squarely in his hands. It is no longer about his own own views (though they influenced his election). How can the leaders at the top successfully ride two different demographic horses that are racing in opposite directions?
Isn't the church in China very representative of the early church which was not burdened down by hierarchy and could function much more freely in tune with their local situations? Could it be that all the structure needed to make a single move, hampers growth in an inverse ratio to expectations? Who is overseeing Adventism in China? Are they not independent and rapidly growing with "parental" oversight? Tight control, represented in WO is destructive to growth in all the nations who have long accepted women in power and leadership. Yielding to those countries who have not yet realized women's capababilities and are still living in old customs, is not aiding the growth of the church in any of the world today.
Well there is a case to be made that in China women are exercising their leadership abilities very energetically within the church because they find few opportunities outside the church.
As it happens I worked for one of the major employers of Chinese men and women in the electronics industry. When I went to China I did not see very many women in leadership positions in our factories. At the same time two of the top executives in the same company in the US of A were women.
Unfortunately for the church in North America, we encourage most of our best and brightest to seek opportunity outside the church because there are so few opportunities for them to excel within its strict confines. I know why in my youth I decided not to work for the church. But I did not leave the church and I support it to this day.
Governmental and industrial and educational culture in China are far more authoritarian that in the West, and certainly more so than in the SDA church here in North America. I would not want to be a woman in China – they are all survivors amongst other things of the "one child" rule that causes the highest abortion rate of female fetuses in the world. Which in turn creates a paucity of marriageable young women, which creates a huge black market for kidnapping, bartering and outright sales. Compared to this fate, working long hours for low pay under authoritarian factory bosses while living in single-sex facotry dormitories seems liberating.
The public perception of Adventism is that of an odd-ball religion. SDA, Mormon, Jehovah's Witness, even Scientology are not easily distinguishable. With the Adventist count being one for every 306 person in Canada/United States, the perception of Adventism is further harmed by this feeble ratio. For most people, bumping into an Adventist is rare, and then, a nonevent.
In the US, there is no current in the electro-magnetism magnet of Adventism to draw people to it, not only for lack of personal exposure, but also because the theology requires mind bending acquiescence to strange concepts.
There are few, if any, SDA's in the ranks of movers and shakers in the country. So there is no exposure to SDA's in "high" circles." I never saw anyone of "importance" at an evangelistic meeting in years past and know of no Adventists as CEO's, politicians, leaders in any field . The fanatical Sabbath observance is the primary reason, ignoring other negative factors of Adventist theology. Most jobs and positions require Saturday work.
The filtering of potential Adventists (by its unusual doctrines) accounts for its retarded growth and limited membership. It remains confined to virtually no chiefs in anything except the inbred medical and educational system.
There is, without doubt, a core of human resources within the church who are capable of being leaders in other fields. But they have opted to confine their talents to the Adventist corral.
The SDA church traveled for decades with a singularity concept based on its eschatological self-imposed important, remnant church, that is now debunked.
So the Adventist Church can never be more than a second string organization in Christian circles, first because of the general secularism malaise now in vogue, but mostly due to bizarre tenets that slams the door on creative, upwardly mobile, intelligent people.
If you want to see what happens when too many professed Christians are in high places you can study 1,290 years of European history from 508 to 1798 AD.
There were not many of the early Christian church in high places until the third century AD. Yet they managed to change their world from the "bottom". This was the work of the Spirit not of man. And it was totally consistent with the teaching of the Master who was not in earthly high paces though He came from the highest place of all. He showed us what it means to empty oneself. Read Philippians 2:5-12 carefully.
If your goal is for power and influence then you do not want to be a follower of Christ – follow someone else.
I see you as my teacher, so it pains me to have to lecture you about logic! But here goes. And my critique only applies if you are addressing my post, in which case, you goofed! I humbly request you to reread my wise observation and explain how your post applies even in a small way!
I was questioning whether it would be a good thing to have SDAs (or any other religious group for that matter) running too much of the industry and government in the US of A.
I was also suggesting that Christianity as a movement did better before they got ahold of the reins of power.
So the case could be made that the current situation of the SDA church vis-a-vis the power elites of the world actually might be healthier for both sides.
Apologies if that is not germane to your comments.
OK, and now I have a get out of jail free card for myself, a kind of credit for my next fufu!
No Adventists in the news? Maybe you don't read the NYT, watch CNN or even Fox News. Just this last week or two, Chaplain Barry Black and Dr Ben Carson were in national news. Carson is even being touted as a presidential candidate. Glen Beck was pushing the Great Controversy and in Florida (or somewhere) there was a nationally-broadcast murder case unvolving SDAs. In addition, Loma Linda studies on health and longevity keep hitting the news. http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/21/us/politics/dr-benjamin-carson-obama-critic-have-conservatives-dreaming-of-2016.html?_r=0
Why is it notable when a couple of Adventist, or related accomplishments, are headlined in the news? I guess you make my point. There are very few. However, I didn't mention news exposure, anyway. There are tens of thousands of jobs of leadership, skill, experience in all kinds of roles, almost none of whom are SDA. Adventism has created a structure for the medical field, but as I have pointed out, that is enabled by the one group that can break the Sabbath without restriction.
And suppose the Sabbath wall wasn't barricading the flow of good, highly principled, Adventist people to positions of responsibility outside the medical field! Think of the positive ethical and moral influence they would demonstrate, not withstanding the "1,290 years" record referenced by Jim above. Surely they would resist the unethical, mendicant fiery darts of the devil!
How can someone expect to have an influence or make a difference if he avoids engaging in most of the world's activities? It's "Catch-22" Adventists are supposed to have little to do with the evil world, and yet still make great strides in influencing to the millions about their beliefs?
Graeme Sharrock,
I doubt Dr. Carson could be elected as he is too honest, transparent, and straightforward with his common sense approach. He sometimes also says things in a way that alienates some groups. He's just not political enough.
You really got to love it when someone, in this case, Bugs, suggests that Adventism is an "odd-ball" religion.
Now some might take offense at that characterization. But, remember, traditional or classic Adventism prides itself on being "peculiar," as in "a peculiar people." You don't have to change much to go from "peculiar" to "odd-ball."
Of course, most new religious groups, at least in modern times, during their early history as a cult, thought of themselves as unique and special and thus "peculiar." Thus early Adventism in that regard was not at all different.
May I suggest that the problem comes when there is an active effort in such a religious group to refuse to move beyond its sect-like origins and, as a consequence, it remains stuck with its cultic language and ideas long after the language and ideas are no longer relevant.
Guess which "odd-ball" religious tradtion contains elements which continue to advocate cultic language and beliefs thanks to the efforts of groups with the initials ATS.
Ervin,
I wouldn't mind being a member of a "cultish" sect as long as it is progressive in relating to other people–changing terminology is most important in my view. I see in Adventism some postmodern ideas, some mystical aspects, health, vegetarianism, care of the earth–all things that could attract a wide range of secular and modern people. In fact this was stated by a well-know Christian progressive speaker once (I can't remember the name).
We have a lot to offer that fundamentalists and the typical evangelical doesn't have; and minus some of the offensive things. However, even trying to reach this group has been made impossible by our leanings and refusal to meet people where they are. Can you imagine them being interested in a religion that won't ordain women pastors? It almost seems as if we need an alternative SDA church that won't compremise core beliefs, but spiritual enough to present them differently at the right times.
This does not mean the teaching of evolution either. Nor does it mean teaching literal 6-day creation immediately. We need to be sure God is believed as the creator, and let them accept certain things as symbolic until their acceptance of Christ as He truly is and what He has done for us, and His wonderful love. And present God in the same way. After coming to love God, most people willl have the faith to believe in God's mystical way of creation and re-creation (before sin and death). What it means must come first.
Ervin, I didn't say what I said! Here is my "odd ball" statement, with my highlight: The public perception of Adventism is that of an odd-ball religion. SDA, Mormon, Jehovah's Witness, even Scientology are not easily distinguishable.
For a small percentage of them in the country, one wouldn't expect many in "high places." However, you can't say there are none. I could make a list but have other things to do. You might start with the medical field.
The high salaries into the millions of Adventist hospital CEOs are an unwelcome example.
To be in "high places" also takes a good bit of playing politics, greediness, power, and competition that real Adventists would want to forego. This is my opinion–you'are welcome to yours.
So "real Adventists" play those same games for lower stakes within our own insittutions 8-).
Unfortunately, I know they do. It's usually because they believe "it is best for the church." and they are usually caring, dedicated people. I doubt the Lord always agrees with their actions. As for self-aggrandizement, I am sure they are there too, but I think they are a small minority. Almost all pastors want to get into administration because there they think "they can make a diffference."
But I have known some very honest, transparent administrators, etc. they don't always last long. One learns not to question too much–depending on what part of the country one works in.
Such a list would probably begin and end with the medical professionals. If an Adventist enters politics, it is immediately questioned as to his ability to practice his religion, particularly, Sabbath observance, although Joseph Lieberman, and Orthodox Jew was never cited for congressional negligence.
In the OT most of the stories are about men, and a few women who were very prominent leaders; and Jews today hold far more prominent positions in medicine, science, finance, etc., than there numbers would indicate.
Adventist young people have not only not entered finance or politics, but have been actively discouraged by the demands of their religious observances. Why did it not seem to interefere for leaders in Judaism? Are Adventists even more meticulous, especially about Sabbath observance than were the Jews?
Thanks for your thoughts.
"Another interesting fact about faithfulness is in tithing. The report has it that last year $933,000,000 was paid in tithe by 1,135,000 North American church members. The average per capita income in the USA and Canada is estimated to be $45,000. Ideally the tithe would on average be $4,500 per year from each member. However, the report states that the average per capita tithe was only $822. Even taking into consideration that a number of church members are seniors, students, unemployed and so on, the figure is fairly low."
If somebody is interested in more details about the worldwide tithe statistics – I would recommend: http://www.aiias.edu/gti/
It seems typical to me that whenever the numbers stack up against us that we revert to the tired old line – "but its not about the numbers". I beg to differ because the early church was about numbers as a good growth indicator. We are in a growth crisis: https://atoday.org/article/2036/opinion/bell-danny/north-american-adventist-church-growth-the-untold-story
“On the other end of the growth spectrum was the South Pacific Division, which reported a membership decline of about 5 percent. Division President Barry Oliver said the loss was expected because a comprehensive audit removed many members from church records. 'The growth rate suffered simply because we caught up on all the statistics to make them more accurate.'"
This is typical of what we hear when the stats dont look good – there is always some excuse or diversion to keep the truth from our people. Even without the audit, the most recent dats still paints a grim picture for Unions like Australia: https://atoday.org/article/2034/opinion/bell-danny/what-did-the-australian-census-really-tell-us
The other thing is we blame "secularism" or the "world" when there is a decline. Not that it may be outdated eveangelistic methods or churches that have completely lost touch witht he surrounding cultures/communities.- heaven forbid! While we continue with the "its all ther fault" line, we will always be the odd ball religion while the west leaves us behind in a heap with the Scientlogists and JW's to nake a few.
Sorry for the bad spelling – does anyone know why the links dont glow?