2023 Statistics Show Growth, but Also Heavy Losses, Weak Attendance
by Daniel Mora and Loren Seibold | June 16, 2024 |
The General Conference’s Office of Archives, Statistics, and Research recently released the 2024 Annual Statistical Report, with statistics for the year 2023. All data are from the 2024 Annual Statistical Report: Advance Release of Membership Statistics by Division for 2023, vol. 6, Silver Spring, MD: Office of Archives, Statistics, and Research of General Conference of Seventh-day Adventist Church, 2024.
As a general observation, Adventism in the western hemisphere is attracting some, but also losing a substantial number compared to those we are baptizing. The data argue for an urgency in adapting to the new sociocultural contexts in those cultures where we are present.
General Conference
In 2023, the Seventh-day Adventist Church reported a world membership of 22,785,195, compared to the 2022 membership of 22,234,406, a net gain of 550,789 members.
Yet the number leaving is staggering. While 1,835,788 new members joined the church in 2023, 1,284,999 were taken off the books. This number appears to include deaths, apostasy, disfellowship, dropped for loss of contact, and requests to drop membership.
For every ten who joined across the world church, seven others ceased to be members.
However, the GC also reports 503,423 loss in the “adjustment” column, which is usually reserved for clerical errors. Since half-a-million in clerical errors seems unlikely, it probably is being used to record losses. If we add that additional amount to the losses, the total deficit is 1,788,422—an astonishing 97% of the total accessions during that period!
That would argue we’re losing as many as we’re gaining!
Reported Sabbath attendance is well below the number of official members. Of the 22,785,195 membership in 2023, reported attendance at Sabbath services was 9,015,845. If this number is accurate, it would mean that about 40% of the official members actively attend local churches.
Church statisticians have pointed out to Adventist Today that many congregations still don’t report their attendance, which would make this number inaccurate. However, no one disputes that congregations do have a substantial number of members on the books who are inactive, unable to be located, or deceased.
Inter-American Division
In 2023, the Inter-American Division, which covers the Central American region from Mexico to Colombia, including the Caribbean, reported a membership of 3,705,040. In 2022 a membership of 3,679,938 was reported—an increase of 25,105 members.
With an aggressive evangelism plan, the Inter-American Division gained 191,905 new members for the church in 2023. Yet in the same period 166,803 were reported to be no longer on the church books.
Removing those that transferred into and out of the division—these presumably became members in a church in another division—the number that joined the church is 158,348. Those who died or were otherwise dropped were 88,817.
However, this division also recorded an astonishingly high negative “adjustment” figure of 49,151—a category which is usually is reserved for clerical errors, but in this case appears to be recording losses. If you add all of those together, it shows a loss of 137,968 members—87% of the evangelistic gain.
This would mean that for every 10 people baptized, almost nine were lost to death or for some other reason.
Attendance at Sabbath services in Inter-America was recorded to be 772,331, compared to the 3,705,040 registered members—21% of the membership. Again, not all congregations record attendance, making this figure unreliable.
South American Division
In 2023, the South American Division, which includes Brazil, Ecuador, Peru, Bolivia, Paraguay, Uruguay, Chile, and Argentina, grew from a membership of 2,612,639 in 2022 to a membership of 2,679,791 in 2023—an increase of 67,152.
The South American Division has aggressive outreach plans and has shown some adaptability in worship for young people. It has shown financial stability, which includes running companies that finance missionary activities.
While 392,849 new members joined in 2023, 325,697 people ceased to be members in the division.
If we subtract the transfers in and out, we find that there were 226,199 accessions, but at the same time 154,728 who died, were dropped, and are otherwise no longer church members.
The number lost from church membership is about 69% of the number gained. So for every 10 people who joined, seven others were subtracted from the membership.
969,292 was the reported attendance in the South American Division—36% of the 2,679,791 membership. That number can be argued to be inaccurate, since not all congregations record attendance.
North American Division
Church membership in the North American Division (NAD) in 2023 was 1,257,884, compared to 1,234,397 in 2022, for an apparent gain of 23,487 membership.
While 71,964 people joined NAD churches in 2023, 48,477 others left. If we again remove those who transferred in and out of the NAD, we find that 38,668 were baptized or joined. 16,667 died, were dropped, or weren’t able to be located. So, as ten people were brought into church membership, about four others ceased to be members.
The NAD shows the worst attendance of any field in this hemisphere. In 2023, the NAD registered a membership of 1,257,884 people, with a reported Sabbath attendance of 190,103—about 15%. According to Brian Ford, who manages the eAdventist program for the NAD, only 60% of NAD congregations are reporting their attendance. If so, then that percentage would jump to 25-30%.
Conclusion
While there appears to be a net gain in all fields, there are also concerning signs of weakness. The number taken off the church books—disfellowship, apostasy, requests to drop membership and death—is substantial.
There is reason to believe, based on the weak Sabbath attendance figures, that pastors aren’t reporting their attendance. There is also evidence that church leaders may be reluctant to acknowledge how few members are active. The number of participating members is likely considerably less than membership—which wouldn’t be a surprise to most pastors who have read through their membership roster.
South America did better in evangelism than Inter-America in 2023. This field has shown a strong entrepreneurial bent: investments in television programs, youth activities, and other creative approaches that have been adopted there.
In all fields, the number of accessions shows that Adventism has an attractive message in the early stages of evangelism. There is great rejoicing every time we see large baptism estimates like those recently reported from Papua New Guinea.
However, the membership is far from stable: a substantial number apparently don’t find a permanent home in the church. It has been our practice, for many decades, to celebrate baptisms but ignore retention of baptized members. We prefer not to call attention to our losses.
David Trim, Ph.D., Director of Archives, Statistics, & Research of the General Conference, showed in his presentation of the 2023 statistics that since 1965, 43,652,857 people have been members of the Seventh-day Adventist Church. Of those, 18,555,581 left. The net loss rate in these nearly-60 years is 42.5%. “In effect,” said Dr. Trim, “more than 4 of every 10 church members are gone.
The aging of the church is reflected in this statistic. Many congregations are gray-haired, and their children and grandchildren are no longer in church. More studies need to be done, but it seems likely that young people are more apt than their elders to become disillusioned and cease to attend.
Daniel Mora is the Adventist Today editor for Latin America. Loren Seibold is the Executive Editor of AT.