Can Adventist Colleges Be Saved? Part 1: Falling Enrollment
by Björn Karlman | 3 October 2024 |
The outlook is bleak for Adventist higher education in North America.
Confronted by financial pressures and fading enthusiasm among church members for Adventist schooling, the sector is struggling. And if that weren’t bad enough, there’s a growing segment of the American population questioning the value of higher education. As these challenges intensify, Adventist schools are experiencing a significant exodus of students.
Can Adventist higher education in North America be saved? The answer is far from straightforward. This article explores insights and strategies proposed by leading thinkers and administrators who are actively working to forge a path forward for Adventist colleges in North America and the Global North. However, before delving into potential solutions, it’s crucial to grasp the scope and gravity of the challenges confronting Adventist higher education today. By understanding the depth of the crisis, we can better appreciate the urgency and complexity of the solutions required.
The enrollment crisis
Graph based on NAD Department of Education data
The severity of these challenges is starkly illustrated by the closure of Atlantic Union College (AUC). After years of financial struggles and declining enrollment, the former South Lancaster, Massachusetts-based institution, which had served the Adventist community for over a century, began its closure process in 2011 when it lost its accreditation. Despite attempts to continue some operations and briefly restart degree programs, AUC’s governing board voted to permanently close the college in 2018. This closure serves as a sobering reminder of the existential threats facing Adventist higher education institutions in North America.
Over the past decade, total enrollment across the remaining 13 Seventh-day Adventist colleges and universities in North America has experienced a steady decline, dropping from a peak of 26,819 students in 2012 to 20,573 in 2023—a substantial 23% decrease. The decline is also evident among First Time in Any College (FTIAC) students, falling 22.9% from 3,438 in 2012 to 2,651 in 2023.
The enrollment trends reveal significant variation among the individual schools. The table below shows plummeting enrollment over the last 10 years, with Pacific Union College and Washington Adventist University enrollment numbers dropping over 40% and Burman University, La Sierra University, and Oakwood University all losing over 30%.
Graph based on NAD Department of Education data
The data on Adventist elementary school enrollment reveals a troubling trend that has significant implications for the future of Adventist higher education. Analyzing data from 1960 to 2010, there has been a dramatic and consistent decline in elementary enrollment per 1,000 members across all North American Division (NAD) unions.
Graph based on General Conference Annual Statistical Report
In 1960, most NAD unions had enrollment rates between 100 and 160 students per 1,000 members. However, by 2010, these numbers had dropped precipitously, with all unions falling below 60 students per 1,000 members.
This decline in elementary enrollment has created a domino effect, reducing the pool of students likely to continue their education in Adventist academies and subsequently in Adventist colleges and universities.
The graph below showing NAD academy enrollment per 1,000 members reveals a stark downward trend over the past four decades. In 1980, academy enrollment stood at a robust 30 students per 1,000 church members. However, this figure has steadily decreased over the years, reaching a low of just 8.6 students per 1,000 members by 2020.
Graph based on General Conference Annual Statistical Report
This represents a staggering 71.3% decrease in academy enrollment relative to church membership over a 40-year period. The trend line shows no signs of leveling off, suggesting that without significant intervention, this decline may continue.
The implications of this trend are profound for Adventist higher education. As academy enrollment dwindles, it further constricts the already diminishing pool of potential students for Adventist higher education institutions.
Declining appetite for higher education is not an isolated phenomenon within Adventist institutions. It reflects a broader trend affecting higher education across the United States. As illustrated in the graph, total U.S. college enrollment, including both graduate and undergraduate students, experienced significant growth from 1970 to 2010, rising from about 8.5 million to a peak of approximately 21 million students. However, since 2010, enrollment has plateaued and begun to decline, dropping to around 19 million by 2020. This trend mirrors the challenges faced by universities nationwide who struggle to convince students and parents of their relevance amidst soaring tuition costs and a rapidly evolving employment marketplace that places an ever-lower importance on the value of years spent studying the liberal arts.
Is it worth coming to us?
“The (Adventist higher education) system has been struggling. People have been questioning whether they need a college education to have a successful life,” admitted Larry Geraty, former president of La Sierra University, as we spoke via Zoom. “Adventist higher ed in North America has to make its case – why is it worth coming to us? We have to be the best we can be. And we have to make sure that the education we’re offering is worth the time and expense.”
This sentiment was echoed by Steve Currow, principal of the Trans-European Division’s Newbold College in Berkshire, England, who made clear that the challenges facing Adventist higher education extend beyond North America. In our conversation, he identified the vast array of career options available to young people as a significant hurdle for Adventist institutions. “We cannot match that range of choices, so we’ve got to be really focused on what we’re doing and we’ve got to have some very clear USPs (unique selling points),” said Currow, who repeatedly stressed the importance of focusing on three factors: quality, ethos (or Adventist identity), and stakeholder connection.
Andrea Luxton is particularly well-placed to speak to the critical issues facing Adventist higher education. Luxton, who retired as president of Andrews University in 2023, has recently taken on the role of associate director for higher education at the North American Division, succeeding former Southern Adventist University president Gordon Bietz. Her job is essentially to ensure an upward trajectory for all NAD institutions of higher education.
“There are some real trigger points for campuses around enrollment and finance,” said Luxton in our Zoom conversation, stressing that ALL colleges and universities in the NAD experienced declining numbers over the past decade. Such declines directly impact financial stability and the long term viability of the institutions, as tuition (as opposed to the well-funded endowments benefiting Ivy League institutions) remains the primary source of revenue for most Adventist institutions.
Collaboration: a potential lifeline
“I think there is… a strong sense of ‘maybe we can’t do this alone.’ We need to be working together more. We need to find solutions that cross between different campuses in different ways,” said Luxton. This growing appetite for collaboration represents a significant shift from the historical competition between Adventist colleges. Traditionally, the independent governance structures of Adventist higher education institutions, often controlled by individual unions and pressured by territorial alumni, have had limited resource and idea sharing. These institutions have long competed for the same limited pool of prospective students. However, Luxton observes a changing tide in attitudes as it becomes increasingly evident that collaboration may be crucial for survival.
Luxton pointed to joint marketing projects and the CARE online consortium as examples of this collaboration. The CARE online consortium, which stands for Consortium of Adventist Higher Education, allows students to take online courses from other participating Adventist universities and receive credit at their home institution.
Initiatives such as the Adventist Enrollment Association (AEA) exemplify this collaborative approach. The AEA brings together enrollment officers and representatives from all 13 Adventist colleges and universities in North America to centrally brand and position institutions together, create awareness of college options, and expand access to Adventist young people. The collaboration extends beyond marketing and recruitment. Institutions are also looking at ways to share resources, develop joint programs, and create pathways for students to take courses across multiple Adventist campuses. This approach not only helps to reduce costs but also provides students with a wider range of educational opportunities.
While joint marketing efforts have shown some success, Luxton suggested that a more fundamental shift may be necessary. She hinted at potential deeper partnerships on the horizon, stating, “There are consultations between different campuses about how they can specifically find a much deeper structural way of collaborating.” An upcoming strategy meeting in October 2024 will bring together all NAD college presidents to discuss these potential changes. Although Luxton couldn’t provide extensive details, she revealed that a range of models will be discussed, including the increasing focus in North America on mergers and regional educational hubs. This strategic gathering underscores the sector’s recognition that more profound collaborative measures may be essential for long-term sustainability and relevance in Adventist higher education.
Across the Atlantic, Currow also emphasized the need for more collaborative thinking among Adventist institutions, potentially offering joint degrees or otherwise partnering with other institutions to get a wider market at lower cost. He noted the huge startup costs of starting a new program for smaller institutions such as Newbold and how risk can be lowered by partnering with sister institutions in Europe and elsewhere.
How Andrews University has responded
To gain insight into how larger individual Adventist institutions are responding to enrollment challenges from a communication and marketing perspective, I contacted Tony Yang, Chief Marketing Officer for Andrews University and former president of the Adventist Enrollment Association. Via email Yang shared several strategies that Andrews has implemented to maintain and increase enrollment.
“Andrews started using geo-demographic data to segment our customers in order to identify students more likely to attend Andrews based on characteristics and behaviors of current and past students,” Yang explained. “Then we use new social and digital media technology to reach them.”
This targeted approach represents a shift from traditional one-size-fits-all recruitment methods, leveraging data analytics and digital platforms to connect with potential students more effectively. Yang noted that this strategy aligns with broader trends in higher education marketing, as observed during his tenure as president of the Adventist Enrollment Association.
“About two years ago, we engaged with a new external agency to help with our joint marketing campaign for all 13 Adventist colleges and universities,” Yang says. “That new agency is very focused on using social and digital media to connect with students rather than the traditional method of mailing lists.”
Beyond marketing, Andrews has also focused on addressing operational issues that created barriers for students. Yang elaborated on their approach: “By listening to prospective students and understanding their needs, the three key areas we identified were summarized in what we called the ABC plan. A is for Affordability, B is for Belonging, and C is for Customer service.” This holistic strategy requires involvement from the entire university, not just the marketing and enrollment team.
“That doesn’t happen overnight,” Yang acknowledged, “but through intentional effort and close collaboration across the campus, we’re making good progress on improving our operations to better meet the needs of prospective students.” The results of these efforts have been promising. Yang reported, “Due to these efforts as well as many more, fall 2023 enrollment of FTIACs (First Time in Any College) at Andrews grew by 20 percent.”
Just how Adventist are the student populations of Adventist schools nowadays, and can we learn anything from how the Mormons approach higher education? Read part 2 of “Can Adventist Colleges Be Saved?” where we tackle these questions.
Björn Karlman is the Executive Director of Adventist Today.
